Problem: The COVID-19 vaccine is a revolution in vaccines because it uses a totally different process to create immunity: mRNA. Due to the billions of dollars in government funding that was dumped into COVID vaccine research, the vaccine industry has accelerated by 3-7 years in technology capabilities. What are the potential futures of mRNA vaccines?
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Solution: In their March 26, 2021 documentary and article, the Financial Times explored “How much are the COVID-19 jabs actually worth to us all?” In addition to investigating the actual cost of research that went behind creating the COVID-19 vaccine. Framed as a defense expenditure, the vaccine research funding was a drop in the bucket that had an extremely positive return on investment dollar-for-dollar (see the graph below). The documentary also asked the economic questions of how poorer countries can get access to this vaccine (and other vaccines) at affordable rates. The World Health Organization has been thinking of this problem for quite some time and has implemented COVAX (an ACT Accelerator designed to speed up the development, production, and equitable access to COVID-19 tests, treatments, and vaccines) to work for global equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines (see this video for more).
However, what I find the most interesting about the COVID-19 vaccine is the way it will impact the vaccine market moving forward. How will mRNA change the marketplace?
In a recent interview with Stéphane Bancel, the CEO of Moderna, he detailed what exactly is next for his company and for the Vaccine market generally. “In 2021 and 2022 Moderna is going to scale at a pace that has never happened before in biotech.”
Boosters and Merged Vaccinations. “You might end up with a thing like the flu where every year, every two years, you need a boost.” In his mind, this may also include a merging of a COVID-19 booster vaccine along with ones typical flu shot. In the future, these merged vaccinations and boosters could decrease the number of shots required in order to become a fully vaccinated person for any disease.
.Cancer Shots. “In the future, I think a lot of vaccines and therapeutics will be based on mRNA technology. It’s very, very low biology risk. It’s a human protein made in a human cell in your body.” And their traction today? “Moderna currently has five therapeutic cancer vaccines, injections that train the immune system to attack cancerous cells in the body, in clinical trials. There are two current vaccines on the market that treat existing cancers (as opposed to preventing them, like the HPV vaccine), but both are only used for advanced cancers and are expensive to produce. mRNA cancer vaccines could have the advantage of being safe, easy to develop and relatively cheap — though there are some hurdles to overcome including limited clinical data and the inherently fragile nature of mRNA.” (Source)
Gene Repairing. “You can use mRNA to do gene editing,” Bancel says, “because what you put in the mRNA is the instruction for the enzyme that will cut the DNA.” “[Eventually] you’re going to have mRNA as another leg on the stool that clinicians will be using. mRNA is going to be gigantic in the next 10 [to] 20 years.”
But what about the finances? As reported by Forbes, industry researchers have estimated the global market for influenza vaccines is more than $4 billion, and there’s room to grow here, too—on average, fewer than 50% of U.S. adults bother to get a flu vaccine, and one reason why is the relatively low efficacy. A more effective flu shot could lead to more jabs in arms.
As for Moderna? Their earnings speak for themselves: As of year-end 2020, Moderna booked $2.8 billion in unearned revenue for its mRNA vaccine, and reported $18.4 billion in advanced purchase orders for 2021. Bancel, who became a billionaire for the first time in April 2020 according to Forbes, now has a net worth of $4.6 billion.
Monetization: Sales of the vaccines or of this technology.
Contributed by: Michael Bervell (Billion Dollar Startup Ideas)