Problem: Quantum computing is a groundbreaking field that leverages the principles of quantum mechanics, a branch of physics that describes the behavior of matter and energy at the smallest scale. Unlike, classical computers, which use bits to represent information as either 0s or 1s, quantum computers use quantum bits or qubits. These bits can exist in multiple states simultaneously, thanks to a phenomenon called superposition. Additionally, they can be entangled, meaning the state of one qubit is directly related to the state of another, even if they are physically separated. Michael has written an excellent article on the overall potential uses of these machines, but I want to zero in on one of their greatest dangers: security. All of these previously mentioned things result in that quantum computers could exponentially more powerful than classical computers ever will be. This means that it could completely break the decades old security architecture designed around raw computational power. If unabated, cryptography as we know will have to be redesigned from the ground up to ensure online security isn’t compromised.
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Solution: A business that takes advantage of this security revolution to design and test new cryptography solutions to the threat posed by quantum computers. The sector is expected to to 5x in growth to 4.4 billion dollars by 2028 up from 866 million dollars in 2023. Investors, however, both government and private alike, are already rushing to invest plenty more in the sectors with all of its promises of completely changing the way we operate computers and the internet in general. In 2020, the U.S. government alone invested a billion dollars into research, and investors in 2022 have done more than double that in the same amount of time.
For a rough timeframe of when all of these huge breakthroughs could happen, the White House has issued a security memorandum that calls for a shift away from conventional security measures towards quantum resistant security cryptography, beginning 2024, when the first standard is expected to emerge in the industry, and ending by 2035. I’ve attached a short except below:
Yet alongside its potential benefits, quantum computing also poses significant risks to the economic and national security of the United States. Most notably, a quantum computer of sufficient size and sophistication — also known as a cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) — will be capable of breaking much of the public-key cryptography used on digital systems across the United States and around the world. When it becomes available, a CRQC could jeopardize civilian and military communications, undermine supervisory and control systems for critical infrastructure, and defeat security protocols for most Internet-based financial transactions.
Additionally, The US National Institute of Standards and Technology has estimated that by 2029 alone, quantum technology will be developed enough that they will actually be able to break 128-bit AES encryption, the security standard for secret government information adopted by the US Government in 2002.
As you might’ve noticed already, it’s hard to understate the importance of the role. A 5-year head start is a good place to begin, but solving an issue of this scale is no easy task. There’s only one real way to make something completely quantum-proof, and that’s to design a one way function, something that mathematicians have struggled to prove even exists since the discovery of quantum computing.
Let me be clear, none of this is absolutely certain. It has been over 40 years since quantum computers were originally proposed, and promises have been made over and over again that we’re just a few years away from getting practical quantum computers. It’s fair to say that some experts in the field are skeptical, but nobody really can predict when true technological revolutions come about. People famously doubted the success of countless technologies that play a central role in our day-to-day lives, including: the internet, online payment systems like PayPal, and Apple. It’s not hard to see how quantum computing could be the next item on that list.
Monetization: Business to business sales of security solutions
Contributed by: David Salinas (Billion Dollar Startup Ideas)